Ready to Strike
The Rays seemed to shock everyone except me with their World Series run last season (See my April 2008 column: “Tampa Bay Will Have its Day” – www.mlbballtalk.blogspot.com). It has become popular among baseball writers and self-confident, yet dim-witted bloggers to cleverly point out the fact that since 2001, at least one of the two teams to reach the World Series seemed to do so riding long shot, Cinderella chances and/or relative obscurity of some of their key, young players. The Diamondbacks in 2001, Mike Scioscia’s Angels in 2002, the Marlins in 2003, the Red Sox in 2004, the Astros and White Sox in 2005, Cardinals in 2006 (cemented by rookie closer-now-starter, Adam Wainwright), the Rockies in 2007, and the Rays in 2008 each realized improbable runs to the Fall Classic. These gurus are then quick to beg the question, “Who will be the Rays of 2009?” Bravo to all the self-proclaimed baseball experts who not only picked up on this overtly repeated trend, but also have the foresight to project its continuance!
I digress. In 2009, the most serious contender for an underdog run is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Not only are they serious contenders, but I declare them my early favorites to win the National League Championship Series in 2009. This prediction, as are all in the world of sports, is contingent on the absence of significant injuries to the players instrumental in their club’s pending success (i.e. Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Max Scherzer, Chad Qualls, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young).
In order for the Diamondbacks to be the contenders that they should be this coming season, three essential things must happen. First, Shane Reynolds must improve his defense at third base. Reducing his error total at third base by about 40% would be a start (34 errors in 150 games at 3B in 2008). Second, CF Chris Young, RF Justin Upton, and Reynolds must all raise their batting averages a minimum of 20 points (.248, .250, and .239 respectively in 2008). Third, young right hander Max Scherzer must continue to emerge as one of the games best young pitching prospects.
With the recent departures of Randy Johnson and Micah Owings, the Diamondbacks began a winter quest to fill their two voids, behind co-aces Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, with veteran lefty Doug Davis holding the final rotation spot. One of those voids was successfully filled for the short term with the signing of Jon Garland, whom I consider a lock for 200+ innings, 32 starts, and approximately a 4.50 ERA, if the last seven years are any indication of what is to come. And they are, plus he is shifting to the National League for the first time in his career, where there is a true bottom to every batting order.
Filling the other hole falls squarely on the shoulders of Scherzer, for whom the organization has high expectations. Scherzer has a power arm and routinely runs fastballs up at 95-96 mph. I’ve seen him hit as high as 98 on the gun. His repertoire also features a good change up between about 85 and 88 mph. His two seam fastball and breaking ball give him a complete set of pitches with movement that he needs to induce ground-ball outs in a division that features hot weather towns and the zero-gravity of Coors Field. Come playoff time, Scherzer becomes the wild card. He is capable of out-performing any other number 3 or 4 pitcher he would stand to be matched up against. These include Rich Harden and Ted Lilly of the Cubs, Jaime Moyer and Joe Blanton of the Phillies, Oliver Perez and John Maine of the Mets (although Maine is a similar type of pitcher), and some combination of Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, and Randy Wolf of the Dodgers.
The team with the deepest rotation will pitch its way through the post-season, as bats often go cold with the weather. The Diamondbacks have deep, quality pitching and a potent offense that also features plenty of speed. The Giants have an extremely strong rotation, but the offense will struggle again. No Molina should be a 4-hole hitter. The Padres will have similar offensive issues, as Adrian Gonzalez remains the only major run producer. The Rockies have lost Matt Holliday’s bat, just about every member of their starting rotation has control issues, and the back end of the bullpen features two question marks: Huston Street’s shoulder and Manny Corpas’s effectiveness. The Dodgers are the D-Backs’ competition in the NL West this year, but Arizona’s young stars experienced their growing pains last year, and the club is poised to see individual breakout seasons all over the diamond. They have the fire power to get to October and the perfect blend of youth, experience, and talent to carry them the rest of the way.
On the Side: With the departure of perennial Gold Glove 2B, Orlando Hudson, the D-Backs quietly signed Felipe Lopez to man second base for the 2009 season. Lopez is a very capable defensive replacement, and could provide some more punch to the already imposing lineup, should he continue the torrid hitting pace with which he ended the 2008 season. In the 43 games after his move to St. Louis at the end of last season, Lopez hit .385 with four of his six home runs. His on-base percentage also skyrocketed to .426, up from his career average of .330. Those numbers will of course come down, but hopefully Lopez will finally be the catalyst in the Arizona offense he has always had the ability to be. At 28 years old, he will begin 2009 in the prime of his career. Hitting in a power-rich lineup that included Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus, and Rick Ankiel, despite late-season woes, was something he lacked in Washington, is what ignited Lopez’s second half last year. With his new club, Lopez finds himself amid the power bats of Conor Jackson, Shane Reynolds, Stephen Drew, and all those in contention for outfield positions. He should see the most fastballs of any player in that lineup, and what better way to be productive than to be protected in the order?
Baseball season begins every year in Arizona and Florida. This year, it will end there as well. Arizona vs. Tampa Bay for the reasons I have stated this year, and last.
New Crop of Backstops About to Break In
Pudge Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, and Jason Kendall are aging, and all of them will inevitably see their production drop off over the next two seasons. Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, and Russell Martin are studs and should continue to be standouts for the Braves, Twins, and Dodgers, respectively, as they have been in recent years. Like Posada, Indians’ catcher Victor Martinez will be a question mark because of his sore arm. Gerald Laird, Brian Schneider, and Miguel Olivo are solid all around and above average defensively, and most of the Molina family could start for my team. Mike Napoli and Ramon Hernandez (to a lesser degree) are run producers, but hit for low average and are sub-par defenders. Giovany Soto and Dioner Navarro got well-deserved recognition this past season for their stellar play. The up and coming backstops to watch next year are Chris Iannett of the Rockies, Lou Marson of the Phillies, Max Ramirez of the Rangers, and Matt Wieters of the Orioles, as they are my top four projections to break out into the league at the catcher position by the end of 2009.
# 4 :
Chris Iannetta is an all around talent who got his first taste of the everyday duties for Colorado this past season. Yorvit Torrealba is a good defender, but had as many passed balls as Iannetta in 2008 in 33 fewer games and 256 fewer innings. Also, Iannetta has committed only one error in over two full Major League seasons. Iannetta hit .264 with 18 HR and 65 RBIs, while sporting a .390 on-base percentage in 2008. All totals should rise in 2009, and his defensive prowess should receive more recognition. While hitting in a batting order with Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe, and Garrett Atkins/Ian Stewart on base in front of him for a full season, Iannetta should see more pitches to hit.
#3:
Lou Marson is the proclaimed catcher of the future in Philadelphia. Carlos Ruiz’s defensive play and hard nosed approach to the game make him a fan favorite, and deservedly so. He is expected to be the starting catcher on Opening Day for the Phils, but could see his role reduced to backup upon Marson’s arrival, if Ruiz is not dealt. This, along with the recent acquisition of backup catcher Ronny Paulino, means the probable departure of veteran Chris Coste, although Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has not ruled out carrying three catchers next season, due to Coste’s ability to play first base. Coste will end up in a backup role again mentoring a younger catcher in 2009. He could be a very nice fit in Baltimore to spell Wieters, as a deal for Coste would not be difficult for the two clubs to put together. Back to Marson. He will be 23 years old in June, and hit .314 last season at Double-A Reading with 5 HR, 46 RBIs, and a .433 on-base percentage. His strong arm should also keep runners close. If the Phillies are lucky, Ruiz’s aggressiveness with base runners will rub off on Marson.
#2:
The Rangers’ recent trade of Gerald Laird to Detroit seemingly paved the way for 24 year old Max Ramirez to take the starting job. Although he is a top prospect, Ramirez will have to first prove that he deserves the job ahead of other catching prospect Taylor Teagarden (.319/6 HR/17 RBIs in 16 games in 2008) and C/1B Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Teagarden could still take the job and be a breakout catcher for the Rangers or another team, should Texas deal from their surplus for a starting pitcher. Ramirez appears to be the favorite, however, as he is more defensively sound than Teagarden, who committed three errors and a passed ball in just 12 games behind the plate. In 2008 at Double-A Frisco, Ramirez belted a career high 17 home runs in 69 games while batting .354 and driving in 50. His offensive numbers dropped in 10 games at Triple-A Oklahoma and in 17 games with the Rangers, as can be expected. He will, however, emerge as one of the game’s top young catchers within a year and be an impact bat in an offensively potent lineup.
#1:
Finally, my top catching prospect in baseball is Matt Wieters. At 6’5/ 230, the switch hitting Wieters led Georgia Tech during his Junior season with 10 home runs, 59 RBIs, and 129 total bases. He also sported a .592 slugging percentage. For his three year career with the Yellow Jackets, Wieters totaled 35 homers and 198 RBIs, while hitting a .359 clip. Wieters hits for power from both sides of the plate and should be the Orioles’ Opening Day catcher, given that they moved former everyday starter Ramon Hernandez to the Reds so he can start every day. The team has no sure bet for a backup at the position, and could well pursue Chris Coste as an option for that position. Wieters has a higher ceiling than any other catching prospect in the game. His batting average at two minor league levels in 2008 was .355. Wieters had a .600 slugging percentage and carried an OBP of .454, giving him a nearly impossible to achieve OPS of 1.053. In the first 130 minor league games of his career (all in 2008), Wieters slugged 27 homers and drove in 91 runs. He also has excellent plate discipline, evidenced by his 82 BB to only 76 strikeouts. This kid is the real deal. His strong arm is another asset to an incredible skill set that includes everything but a lot of speed. A lack of speed is characteristic of and understandable for hulking catchers and power bats. Wieters is both.
Off-Season Speculation: Part 1 – Pitching
The Free Agent Market
With Game 1 of the World Series upon us, it is not too early to begin off-season free agent and potential trade speculation. For the second consecutive season, the Mets’ bullpen successfully barred the franchise from reaching the playoffs after the team led in the division in the dying weeks of the season. With closer Billy Wagner on the shelf for at least the majority of the 2009 season and the bullpen on the verge of an overhaul, look for the big-spending Mets to make the hardest push for free-agent closer Fancisco Rodriguez. With options such as established eighth inning man Scott Shields and developing, hard-throwing right hander Jose Arredondo coming onto the scene in the late innings, it would be wise for the Angels to pass on Rodriguez, who will certainly be classified as a Type A free agent, allowing the Angels to acquire either a first or second round pick in the 2009 First Year Player Draft from the team that signs Rodriguez. Also, the surrender of K-Rod leaves the franchise with more free money to retain the services of newly acquired 1B, and free agent-to-be Mark Teixeira.
Rodriguez, who set a Major League record this past season with 62 saves, will certainly command a watershed contract from the teams that court him during the winter meetings. Last year, current Reds closer Francisco Cordero signed a 4 year/ $46 million deal. At the time of the signing, Cordero was 32. Rodriguez is only 26. When he inks his deal this winter, the number of years should surpass the four received by Cordero. Rodriguez has also pitched in a key closer role for a World Series Champion team and has three seasons of 50 or more saves to his credit. Cordero has not pitched in the post-season and has never reached the 50 save plateau. Furthermore, Rodriguez owns a career 2.35 ERA, to Cordero’s 3.29 mark, and K-Rod has a converted saves for his career at an 86.3% (208/241) success rate, while Cordero’s success rate is significantly lower at 80.2% (211/263). The extensions reached between the Phillies and closer Brad Lidge and between Minnesota and their closer Joe Nathan do two things to the value of K-Rod’s approaching contract. It increases the competition and demand for an established closer, because they represent two top flight closers that will not be on the open market. The 3 year/$37.5 million deal received by Lidge averages $12.5 million per year, more than the $11.5 per given to Cordero and the $11.75 million given to Nathan. Only Mariano Rivera, preparing to enter the second season of a three year deal, averages $15 million annually. This could be the average value K-Rod and his agent, Paul Kinzer, will seek. Let the bidding begin at 4 years and $46 million with the ceiling of $15 million annually for a starting value of 5 years/$75 million. I expect a contract somewhere in the middle between 4 years/$52 million and 5 years/$65 million Despite his dominance, however, K-Rod will remain beatable. Keep in mind the fact that he blew 7 saves this season, and he throws a very high number of curve balls. To this point, he has avoided severe shoulder and elbow issues, but they might not be far off as he enters his upper twenties. Omar Minaya, beware.
High risk GMs in with big market teams looking to solidify their starting rotations will keep and eye on Blue Jays’ starting pitcher A.J. Burnett, who could exercise the famous opt-out clause that kicks in after this season, the third in his 5 year/$55 million deal. Any baseball writer who can name big market teams will tell you that the list of potential suitors could include the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Angels are absent from this list simply because their rotation is set with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, John Garland, Joe Saunders, and Jared Weaver.
Given the success enjoyed by C.C. Sabathia in the National League this season, I would not be surprised in the least to see him stay. In the East, the Phillies do not seem realistic contenders in the looming sweepstakes, nor do the Mets who already have Johan Santana’s mega-contract to deal with. The Braves do not seem likely, as GM Frank Wren appears to want to build around youth, both home grown and prospects acquired via trade. The Marlins have the lowest payroll in baseball, they are out. The Nationals would do better to focus on executing the fundamentals of baseball, rather than signing a big free agent.
In the Central, the Cubs will have a full rotation, especially if Ryan Dempster is re-signed and remains in the rotation. If so, the Cubs, who picked up Rich Harden’s $7 million option for 2009, will enter next year with Carlos Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis under contract. Even lefty Sean Marshall, Chad Gaudin, and rookie Jeff Samardzija could potentially be starting options. The Astros appear to be focused primarily on upgrading their pitching staff through a trade for Jake Peavy, although nothing is for sure yet. The Brewers should make a push to retain Ben Sheets or reel in Burnett if he bails on his current deal. If neither happens, they must piece together a trade Number 1 or 2 starter to head the rotation with Yovanni Gallardo, but this is not likely due to the damage inflicted by the Indians on the Brewers’ farm system in the Sabathia trade that allowed the Tribe to snatch Matt LaPorta. The Cardinals are probably out with their signing of Kyle Lohse for 4 years and $41 million. Their rotation next year will include Lohse, Adam Wainwright, Todd Wellemeyer, 22 year old lefty prospect Jaime Garcia, and either Joel Piniero or a maybe even a healthy Chris Carpenter. The Pirates and Reds have no chance of landing any of the Big 3 available starters (Sabathia, Sheets, Burnett). The addition of Sabathia to either of those teams would do little more than ensure that the club will not finish in last place.
Out West, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and future star Max Scherzer will lead the D-Backs’ rotation. The Giants are bogged down with Barry “the Bust” Zito’s contract and expensive deals for young righties Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain on the horizon, unless Cain is dealt for a top position player. The Rockies, despite their rotation woes, are not in the financial position to bring in an expensive free agent starter, as GM Dan O’Dowd’s preference is to choose from in-house candidates. The Padres could be looking to unload Jake Peavy in a rebuilding effort and will not attempt to sign a big name starter in the process of dumping one. That leaves the Dodgers in the NL. They are coming off a slightly above average regular season in a weak division and a run to the NLCS. They will look to add to the pitching staff that includes an aging Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda, and young lefty Clayton Kershaw. Jason Schmidt has been done for a few years due to incessant shoulder and arm issues, and Greg Maddux, if he is re-signed, simply will not contribute the way Sabathia will. To identify the front runner in the Sabathia bidding, I say he is a Dodger next year, given that he stays in the National League. This will leave the Yankees and Red Sox the primary suitors trying to woo Sheets and Burnett. Sheets missed the end of the year with elbow discomfort, in much the same manner as Tim Hudson went down. Could Tommy John claim Sheets too? Burnett was healthy this year, made 34 starts, and led the AL in strikeouts – a prime formula for seeking a pay raise. In his career, he has either enjoyed tremendous success or endured a variety of injuries. He has been limited to 25 starts or fewer in a season five times since 2000.
Trades
On the trade front, Billy Beane will again be a popular man during the Winter Meetings. With the market for closers drying up via contract extensions, teams looking to acquire an established closer could inquire about 25 year old Oakland right hander Huston Street. He has two years of salary arbitration ahead of him, meaning that any team that would potentially acquire him this offseason would have control of Street through at least the 2010 season. Street endured a down year this past season, but still owns a career ERA of 2.88, a K:BB of better than 3:1., fewer career hits than innings pitched, and a WHIP of only 1.07. The Mets could be potential suitors if Francisco Rodriguez does not sign there. With the late season emergence of rookie Brad Ziegler in the closer role for Oakland, RHP’s Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine will prepare to handle the seventh and eighth innings. The A’s could also swing a trade this winter with their glut of Major League ready, left-handed starting pitchers: Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Dan Meyer, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez. Also in the rotation are newly acquired right hander Sean Gallagher and Justin Duchscherer, who is coming off a career year. If the A’s are looking to deal one or more of their starting pitchers, the Astros, Padres, and White Sox could be potential matches.
In a possible Peavy trade between the Padres and Astros, the Padres will likely demand a package of a center fielder and two pitching prospects, similar to that demanded by the Minnesota Twins when they were peddling Johan Santana. Peavy, evidently, has a desire to remain in the National League, and has a no trade clause he would need to waive. If the Padres were to trade Peavy, which does not make sense because he is under contract with the organization through 2012 and is a perennial Cy Young candidate, the deal could center around CF Michael Bourn, Class-AA lefty starter Polin Trinidad, and righty prospect Brad James, who ended the year on the 40-man roster. The Astros’ minor league system has a dreadful dearth of talent, especially on the pitching front. I hope San Diego GM Kevin Towers is not in too much of a hurry to make this trade, even though Peavy might want to pitch in Houston with his buddy Roy Oswalt.
Another top flight young pitcher who could be on the move this winter is Matt Cain of the Giants. He is a young hard throwing right hander with excellent stuff and, in all three of his full big league seasons, Cain made at least 31 starts, topped 200 innings in both 2007 and 2008, and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. Cain is a dominant pitcher who will continue to develop into a solid ace. The only reason the Giants should consider moving him would be to net a top position player in return, is that Tim Lincecum will anchor the staff and stands to contribute more than Cain in the future. If the Giants do move Cain, they should be looking for a long term upgrade at any one of the infield positions. A late inning reliever will also be necessary if the team wants to compete for a post-season spot in the coming years.
Finally, it is that time of year for the Marlins who will begin next season with Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, and Andrew Miller in the rotation. Nicky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Scott Olsen are the three others competing for the last two spots. Nolasco performed best out of the trio, and Olsen has been healthier and more durable than Sanchez. I would not be surprised in the least to see the Marlins part ways with one or more of the later three, as the club never ceases to amaze me with the young pitching talent it continues to produce at the Major League level. Twenty four year old lefty Eulogio De La Cruz (Class-AAA, 13-8/ 4.34 ERA/ 118 K in 25 starts) is my pick be the next Marlins starter to make an impact on the rotation should a combination of injuries and trades occur.
Most Valuable Brewer
My vote for the 2008 NL MVP might not count for a whole lot, but it goes, nonetheless, to a Milwaukee Brewer who has carried his team throughout the year, not just through 13 times (through 9/17/08) on the mound. Ryan Braun is hands down the National League’s Most Valuable Player. Although C.C. Sabathia’s contributions to the club since his arrival in early July have been extraordinary and well documented, Braun’s offensive production has allowed the team to challenge the Cubs in the NL Central and, to this point, maintain at least a share of first place in the Wild Card race. Sabathia’s run as the Brewers’ new ace has lasted a little over two months, and, to the dismay of the faltering Brewers, is bound to regress. Since he, similarly to Carlos Delgado, failed to contribute to his current team from April through the end of June, I remove him from MVP contention.
Many are making a case for Carlos Delgado to take home the coveted award, but the truth is that Delgado was a no more than a detriment to the Mets’ offense for the first three full months of the six month baseball season, batting at a .229 clip entering July 1. An explosion in the month of July appears to have saved his season and offensive production. In 26 July games, the Mets’ first baseman hit .357 with 9 homers and 24 RBIs, boosting his season average to .260 by the month’s end. I have watched a number of televised Mets games over the past several months, and on each telecast, the broadcasters invariably provide the viewers with Delgado’s offensive numbers since his two homer, 9 RBI performance in the first game of the cross-town double-header with the Yankees on June 27. Since that time, Delgado has gone 81 for 273, hitting .297 with 24 homers and 69 RBIs. These are impressive numbers, considering the fact that Delgado hit just .248 in the month of August. Essentially, with Delgado’s strong month of July, streaky August that saw him hit safely in less than one quarter of his at-bats, and a fruitful half of September, a .265 hitter for the year is in serious contention for the NL MVP Award. His batting average has not eclipsed .267 since the season’s 12th game! Cubs’ 3B Aramis Ramirez is hitting .280 (15 points above Delgado), with an equal RBI total of 105, and 89 runs scored (4 more than Delgado). Ramirez’s team boasts the best record in the NL and holds first place in the National League’s toughest division by 8.0 games. But in a lineup with Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Geovany Soto, Mark DeRosa, and others who are constantly on base forcing opposing pitchers to throw strikes, Ramirez sees more than a fair number of pitches to hit. Although he is well worthy of high consideration, Ramirez has not stood out as the biggest impact player in the lineup.
Lance Berkman’s .328 average, 28 HR, 100 RBIs, and 110 R are extraordinary. So are his 16 steals in 20 attempts and his ability to hit right (.284, 7 HR) and left (.341, 21 HR) handed. Where would his team be without him? Probably jostling for third place in the central division with the injury wrought Cardinals, just above the dreadful Reds, and the Pirates, who are closing the book on their 16th consecutive losing season. Oh wait, that’s exactly where they are now.
Perhaps the strongest MVP candidate in the National League is Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez, who is hitting .293 with 30 homers, 63 RBIs, 115 runs, and 33 steals. He has, however, been caught stealing 12 times, as he continues to learn the art of base stealing to improve on his raw speed. Ramirez has also committed 21 errors at the game’s most crucial position. Let’s compare him with Ryan Braun for a moment, discounting the RBI totals (Ramirez – 63, Braun – 97), because Ramirez bats leadoff for the Marlins. Braun is hitting .290 with 35 homers, 81 runs scored. He hits in fourth in the lineup and provides protection behind free-swinging lefty slugger Prince Fielder. Because of Ramirez’s spot in the lineup, his run total will invariably be higher than that of Braun, who has also contributed 14 steals. Defensively, Braun has not committed an error and has 9 outfield assists from left field, a position he is still learning following a switch from third base to begin this year. Where would the Marlins be without Hanley Ramirez? Third place in the NL East, not contending for a playoff spot, ahead of the Braves and Nationals. Sound familiar? Where would the Brewers be if not for Ryan Braun? The Brewers certainly could not replace his bat in the lineup. Current fourth outfielder Gabe Kapler is having a fine year in his role, but cannot match Braun’s offensive production.
If there were a July 1 – September 16, 2008 MVP Award, Delgado wins in a landslide. But for the six month long, 2008 Major League Baseball season, Ryan Braun is my choice for NL MVP.
Successless in Seattle
The Seattle Mariners are the worst team in Major League Baseball, and it is no secret. It’s more like a joke. The only continuity exhibited by the AL West basement dwellers thus far has been that the lineup and pitching staff have been consistently bad. Only once over the past decade have the Mariners won the American League West Division. Although similar droughts are somewhat common around the League, recall that such a streak lacking accomplishment is less understandable in the only division consisting of just four teams.
Current Cubs manager Lou Piniella led the team to their last division championship. Since his departure following the 2002 season, four different men have managed in Seattle. Jim Riggleman serves as this year’s mid-season appointee and finds himself stuck with the underperforming mess that is the Mariners’ roster. He succeeds John McLaren, whose outstanding inadequacy lead to his firing about a year after his appointment as successor to Mike Hargrove during the 2007 season. Riggleman is the third consecutive manager in Seattle to not begin and end a season in the same position. Mel Stottlemyre is in only his first season as pitching coach with the M’s, replacing Rafael Chaves. Chaves was fired following the 2007 season along with the entire 2007 coaching staff, except McLaren, who did not last much longer.
A recent history of unfavorable acquisitions has hurt the Mariners. The off-season signing of former Twins right-handed starter Carlos Silva has proven counter-productive. The Mariners won the Silva sweepstakes, agreeing to pay him $48 million through the 2011 season. Silva has been ineffective when not on the DL, going 4-14 with a 6.53 ERA, thus far.
Also following the 2007 season, the Mariners’ front office dealt for former Baltimore lefty starter Eric Bedard, who is currently enduring his second DL stint of the year. His current stint, caused by left shoulder stiffness, is retroactive to July 5th. To get Bedard and the 15 starts he made for $7 million, the Mariners gave up top OF prospect Adam Jones and a quartet of pitchers, including Orioles currently injured closer George Sherrill. The loss of Jones will prove in the near future to be a blow to and an outfield that stands to lose Raul Ibanez to free agency following this season.
Jeremy Reed has played respectably in Center Field, but through 75 games has shown that he lacks power (2 HR), run production (24 RBI/ 20 runs scored), and contribution on the basepaths (1 SB in 3 attempts). Also, 26 year-old RF Mike Morse is currently on the shelf and hasn’t been used in any sort of a regular role since the 2005 campaign, in which he played 72 games for Seattle.
Smooth swinging, current fourth outfielder Wladimir Balentien is just 24 and has the potential to be an everyday outfielder, but will need to improve on his .200 batting average. Beyond him, only Michael Wilson, 25, (.276/27 HR/84 RBIs/ 9 SB) in and Gregory Halman, 21, (.277/ 10/ 30/ 8 SB) appear to have hope for bright futures in the Mariners’ outfield. Although both have high ceilings, it is a stretch to say that either will have a major impact in Seattle in 2009, as both are currently playing for Double-A West Tenn. Earlier this season at Single-A High Desert Halman stole 23 bases in 24 attempts.
Jose Vidro was released on August 13, three days after utilityman Willie Bloomquist went down with a hamstring injury. It is bad news when a career second-baseman with a capacity to play first base and DH in the absence of a utility-man is no longer valuable to a last place team. So ends the injury plagued saga of Jose Vidro.
The acquisition of Richie Sexson prior to the 2005 season is no exception in the trend of bad signings by the Mariners. Sexson has a terribly high career strikeout rate, punching out in more than one quarter of his career at-bats (1313 K’s in 4928 AB). He also sported only a .244 clip in his three and a half seasons as a Mariner, before the team released him due to a tragic lack of production. The Yankees signed him for about three weeks and disposed of his services in the same way after Sexson contributed just 7 hits in 28 at-bats.
Behind the plate, the Mariners locked up 32 year old Kenji Johjima for three years (beginning the 2008 season) and $24 million. Since that time, Johjima has exhibited some difficulty in handling the pitching staff when calling games. He has a tendency to have his pitchers “pitch backwards” to opposing hitters, that is, attack the hitter with breaking pitches at the beginning of the at-bat. Johjima’s lack of production (.209/ 5 HR/ 26 RBIs) warrants the current platoon his is in with lefty swinging 25 year-old backup Jeff Clement (.227/5/23) and 36 year old Jamie Burke.
At the hot corner, the Mariners inked Adrian Beltre to a 5 year/ $64 million deal one day after the Sexson signing in December of 2004. One must wonder about the collective intelligence of the Seattle front office committing so much to a player who has an season vastly uncharacteristic of his abilities. In 2004 for the Dodgers, Beltre hit .334 with 48 home runs, 121 RBIs, all career highs. In the two previous seasons, 2002 and 2003, Beltre batted .257 and .240, respectively. For his career entering his contract with the Mariners, Beltre was mediocre. Seattle signed a .334 hitter with great power. But due to what I have come to know as “regression to the mean,” got a man who was a career mediocre .274 hitter at the time with 25 home run pop in his bat. I define regression to the mean as a foreseeable and inexorable return of a veteran player to his average career performance statistics within a single standard deviation of the mean for the season(s) following a career year. Following his torrid 2004 campaign, Beltre has not hit above .276. He also has not eclipsed even 26 homers, 100 RBIs, or 200 hits during any other season at any time during his career. If I could ever offer any advice to any GM, I would say to beware the career years of a player, because they almost invariably overshadow underachieving career stats and coincide with a contract year.
The signing of Jarrod Washburn is a prime example of the Mariners overpaying for a historical underachiever coming off of a career year. The Mariners over invested in the mediocre left-hander, inking him to a contract worth four years and $37 million. He is nearing the end of his third season with the team, and during his time in Seattle, the 34-year old has not finished with a winning record, nor has he succeeded in keeping his ERA any lower that 4.32 for the year. In 2005, before signing with Seattle, Washburn made 29 starts for the Angels and boasted a 3.20 ERA. This is the season in which he earned his big payday in Seattle, not in the previous two seasons in which Washburn finished with ERA’s of 4.43 and 4.64, respectively. In his 11th Major League season, Washburn has allowed more hits than innings pitched in his career, has only recorded five seasons of 100 or more strikeouts, and has a career record of 98-100. Washburn has a career ERA of 4.13, nearly a full run per nine innings higher than he had in his contract season of 2005. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN. Hoping a player will repeat his performance of the previous year is a mistake. Looking at the performance trends of his career before signing him, is a necessity. Also, following a player’s signing of a long-term, guaranteed contract, the incentive to perform drops considerably.
So get used to the AL West Basement, Mariner fans. Finding fault in the Angels’ lineup is no easy task, the A’s continue to reload each year with young talent, and the Rangers’ high-powered offense will continue to improve, especially with the emergence of 1B slugger Chris Davis, and Rookie OF David Murphy. I predict at least one more last place finish in 2009 before the M’s make any kind of a push for third place.
Arms Arrivals Could Propel Teams into the Post-Season
With the non-waiver trade deadline looming, two of the biggest pitching chips have already been moved. On July 7th, the Indians found the deal they wanted with the Brewers for Ace left-hander C.C. Sabathia. Entering July 28, Sabathia has pitched three consecutive complete games, one of which was a shutout. In his first four starts as a Brewer, he has surrendered just 5 earned runs in 33 innings pitched, for a 1.36 ERA, while striking out 31 and walking just eight since arriving in the National League. Combined with fellow ace Ben Sheets, the Brewers have become strong candidates to ultimately subdue the third place Cardinals and possibly catch and/or pass the Cubs to take the NL Central division title. Behind the solidified staff, All-Star OF’s Ryan Braun and Corey Hart will continue to power an imposing offense that also features young stud 1B Prince Fielder and SS J.J Hardy. The recent addition of veteran 2B Ray Durham solidifies the middle defensively, and also serves as an offensive upgrade given the struggles of incumbent 2B Rickie Weekes.
Following the acquisition of Sabathia by the Brewers, the first-place Cubs quickly completed a trade with the ever-rebuilding Oakland A’s, who soon after parted ways with Opening Day starter Joe Blanton, for RHP Rich Harden. Harden is a difference maker when healthy and has 10 K stuff, that is the potential to strike out ten in any given start. He has an electric fastball in the mid-90′s, complemented by a nasty hard slider. Over the course of his first three starts with the Cubs, Harden has allowed only two runs (both earned). He also has scattered only a total of seven hits in 17.1 IP. Combined with established ace and workhorse Carlos Zambrano, and surprise closer-turned-starter Ryan Dempster (11-4, 2.99 ERA, 117 K’s), Harden could be exactly the pitching addition the Cubs needed to counter the Sabathia trade and hold onto first place in the NL Central.
The Marlins’ Josh Johnson has returned from Tommy John surgery and appears to still have his dynamite stuff, featuring an explosive fastball that still touches 97 mph (after not pitching in a game for over one full year). His return could stabilize a Marlins rotation marred by injuries and inconsistency. Also, the arrival of pitching prospect Chris Volstad will aid in adding strength to the Florida rotation. Volstad has flown, to this point, somewhat under the radar as he has already turned in three solid starts. In his debut as a starter, Volstad lasted 8.2 innings and gave up just on earned run while beating the Dodgers. In his last two starts, he has pitched a total of 12 innings (6 in each start) and surrendered just five earned runs. The additions of the dominant Johnson and promising Volstad combined with Ricky Nolasco’s solid season could be enough to allow the slugging Fish to sneak past the Phillies and Mets to take the NL East, as the NL Wild-Card will most likely go to the Central’s runner up (either the Cubs or Brewers). To back up Florida’s pitching, the offense boasts sluggers Mike Jacobs (22 HR/60 RBI’s), Dan Uggla (25 HR/62 RBI’s), Jorge Cantu (18 HR/60 RBI), Hanley Ramirez (24 HR/47 RBI/ 84 runs scored), Jeremy Hermida (15 HR/47 RBI’s), Cody Ross (15 HR/49 RBI’s) and LF Josh Willingham who is returning from a DL stint.
The Tigers, currently making a push for the AL Central crown, will have to battle past the Twins and White Sox. If they do so, Detroit will be riding rookie rotation saver, Armando Galarraga, who boasts an ERA of 3.27 in 18 games (17 starts). Also, righty fireballer Justin Verlander finally appears to have turned things around as he recently turned in a string of eight consecutive starts in which he surrendered just two earned runs or fewer. This streak lasted from June 11 to July 26. With Verlander regaining his form of old despite a rocky outing against the White Sox on July 25th and the onslaught of runs the lineup is capable of scoring on a nightly basis, the Tigers should make a hard second half push for the AL Central. The returns of relievers Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya could figure into the team’s immediate future as well.
The Twins figure to see the return of Francisco Liriano to the rotation at some point in the near future as he has torn apart Triple-A offenses. In the rotation, he could potentially replace the struggling Livan Hernandez (5.31 ERA), the only Twins starter with an ERA above 4.41. In 19 starts with Triple-A Rochester since his demotion, Liriano is 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA to go with a .231 opponents batting average and a K:BB of 113:31. From June 30th to July 27th, Liriano did not give up an earned run in four of five starts. He is ready to make an impact.
Finally, perhaps the biggest potential difference maker is David Price, the first round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2007 Draft. During each of his final two years at Vanderbilt, the left hander broke the school’s single season strikeout record. He is currently pitching at the Double-A level and has been near untouchable throughout his college and minor league careers. Listed on the Rays’ 40-man roster, he could fill a rotation or a bullpen spot by the end of the season. In doing so, he would certainly join Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza. He could potentially replace Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson, who could make a transition to the bullpen with his live arm or become valuable trade bait. Price was clocked this past spring at 99 mph. Since joining Double-A, the 6’6″ 22 year old has compiled a 2.19 ERA in six starts, allowing just 33 hits in 37 innings pitched. Of all prospects prepared to break into the league I am and have been most excited about Price’s arrival. Given his natural dominant abilities and the fact that the major leaguers have not yet faced him, Price stands to make an immediate difference. His potential addition to the first place Tampa staff might be enough to help the Rays to the franchise’s first pennant. The Yankees’ loss of Jorge Posada for the season furthers the Rays’ chances as well. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that this young group can hold off the Red Sox and take the division.
On the Side:
The Braves placed 3B Chipper Jones and Ace RHP Tim Hudson on the DL today, officially marking the beginning of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, as the Braves will attempt to trade for a major leaguer and possibly some prospects, instead of losing him through free agency at season’s end for two draft picks. Teixeira will certainly be classified as a Type-A free agent, allowing the Braves to receive the first round pick of the team that signs him (or the second round pick if the team he goes to finishes the 2008 campaign with on of the 15 worst records in the majors) in addition to a supplemental round pick, if Atlanta does not find the right deal for the switch hitting, Gold-Glove, slugger. The Yankees and Diamondbacks appear to be the front runners, however the Braves will demand a first-baseman in return. Also, any team interested in acquiring Teixeira’s services would be wise to consider the fact that he is most likely a rental player unless the team can sign him to a big extension. This could bring the big-market Angels into the bidding, as they continue their search for another big bat in the lineup. The Braves could demand a package of young first baseman Casey Kotchman, young, hard-throwing reliever Jose Arredondo, and another prospect (Triple-A RHP Nick Adenhart, maybe?). If it happens, you heard it here first.
Young Better Than Today’s Youth
Michael Young of the Texas Rangers is and has been Major League Baseball’s most underrated shortstop for years, outperforming the league’s best for over half of a decade. After debuting with Texas in 2000, Young became a staple up the middle for the Rangers. He took over second base duties in 2001, as he was blocked at shortstop by Alex Rodriguez and his 10 year $252 million contract. After three years, A-Rod was shipped to the Bronx for then second baseman Alfonso Soriano. This move opened up shortstop for Young and allowed Soriano to take over second base for the Rangers (where he committed 23 errors in ’04 and 21 in ’05).
Since then, Young has been arguably the most productive shortstop offensively and certainly one of the game’s most solid defenders at the position, as he carries a career fielding percentage of .980. No easy task for someone who has spent his entire career in the infield and has played in at least 156 games in each of the past six full seasons. He could potentially extend that number to seven at the conclusion of this year.
Additionally, the 31 year-old Covina, California native has collected at least 200 hits in each of the past five seasons. To put this achievement into perspective, Derek Jeter cannot make this claim. Reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, third year phenom Hanley Ramirez, and former perennial All-Star SS Nomar Garciaparra have each all reached the 200 hit plateau only once in their careers. Edgar Renteria, Rafael Furcal, Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy, and Omar Vizquel have never even reached 200 hits in a season. Young has also hit over .300 in each of those seasons and owns a career batting average of .302. This year, he is currently on pace to finish with 203 hits if he plays in each of the final 66 games. Also, of the aforementioned band of talented shortstops, only Vizquel (.984) and Rollins (.982) have higher career fielding percentages. Young is also currently battling a hairline fracture on his left ring finger, but has nixed any possibility of a DL stint.
Michael Young has delivered the game winning RBI in two of the last three All-Star Games, including the 15th inning sacrifice fly off of Brad Lidge two nights ago. The other came in 2006 on an eventual game winning triple. Also, since the start of the 2003 season (5 ½ seasons) he has maintained a .357 batting average with runners in scoring position. Needless to say, he is an extremely clutch performer.
Young is also the real catalyst in the Rangers’ lineup. Much has been made of Texas’ leadoff man Ian Kinsler’s breakout season and of Josh Hamilton’s thumping of the league’s pitching. His knack for making contact behind the speedy Kinsler allows the Rangers to play hit and run with less risk. Since Young is so dangerous with the bat, pitchers are forced to go after him with their better breaking stuff, allowing Kinsler (23 steals in 24 attempts) to run more freely. Hamilton entered the All-Star Break with 95 RBI’s, second most all-time. Young’s high batting average, baserunning abilities (6 SB in 6 attempts), and on-base percentage of .350 allow Hamilton more RBI opportunities.
Young’s tenure with the organization has seen three different General Managers and four managers. He is also currently the longest tenured player on the Rangers’ roster, barely edging reliever Joaquin Benoit, who debuted in 2001. The general theme is that Michael Young is the epitome of consistency in baseball, and has close to a decade of good baseball ahead of him.
As modest as they come, Young always offers praise for his teammates when asked about his own accomplishments and abilities. Never has he made public a complaint about playing in the shadow of other shortstop standouts like Jeter, Rollins, and Reyes. In this age of Prima Donna and thug icons in sports, Michael has always carried himself in an exemplary manner and behaved in model fashion on and off the field. The Rangers truly have an all-around gem in Michael Young. He contributes on all levels within the game and will always receive my highest commendation.
Firesale Could Come in Western PA
It isn’t too early to begin speculation about who will land where at the trade deadline that is approaching faster than you may think. Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington figures to be a busy man, come the end of July. The Pirates are currently 11.0 games back in the NL Central division, the league’s most crowded division and do not figure to make any sort of a late-summer charge up several difficult steps from the basement. The Wild-Card is set to almost certainly go to the NL East runner up. The Phillies are legitimate contenders and will only continue to improve as the weather heats up. The Marlins have played the role of underdog before and could continue to play it well. The Mets should soon realize a common goal and stop fighting for space on the DL. When that happens, the team including Jose Reyes, David Wright, a healthy Ryan Church, and a hot and healthy Carlos Beltran (we can’t count everything out) can be dangerous. Also, those Atlanta Braves will continue to loom in the rearview, but perhaps not for too long, as John Smoltz is gone for the year, Tom Glavine is on the DL with a sore elbow, and Mike Hampton has not pitched since 2005, a season in which he started just 12 games. Also, relievers Peter Moylan, lefty Mike Gonzalez, and closer Rafael Soriano are all battling injuries. That trio had the potential to pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings for the Braves, respectively.
The Pirates have several trading chips that will be highly sought after as the next month and a half go by. Jason Bay will be an attractive addition to a contender seeking outfield help. He is still 29 and to this point, is hitting .282 with 15 homers, 39 RBI, and 53 runs scored. Xavier Nady has also shown his ability to drive in runs and to hit in the middle of the lineup. He is having a career year and is hitting at a .314 clip with 10 home runs, 49 RBIs, and 18 doubles already. Nady could attract even more interest than Bay and fetch even more in return for the Pirates, as the buyer that deals for him will retain Nady’s services through all of next season, as he still has one year remaining before he is eligible for free agency after the 2009 campaign. Nady was removed from June 14th‘s game with acromioclavicular joint sprain in his left shoulder, but the Bucs have deemed that a trip to the DL is not necessary and expect Nady to be back in action within a few days.
Should the two depart, Nate McLouth will remain the starting center fielder as he will continue to jumpstart what otherwise will be a dormant offense. Jason Michaels is certainly a capable fill-in at either of the corner outfield spots for the final third of the season, and OF Chris Duffy, currently out with a shoulder injury, could provide some relief in the coming months, giving the club with another option to replace either Bay or Nady.
Speedy Class-AAA outfielder Nyjer Morgan has some Major League experience and could be the club’s first option in the minor leagues to fill a Bay’s or Nady’s roster spot. Also on the horizon for the Pirates in the outfield is 2005 first-round pick Andrew McCutchen, the club’s top outfielding prospect. Of all outfield prospects in the minor leagues, I am most excited to see McCutchen prepare to make the jump to the Bigs. This is a statement I can now honestly make since the promotion of Jay Bruce to Cincinnati. I rate McCutchen as highly as Cardinals’ propect Colby Rasmus, Florida’s Cameron Maybin. Currently with AAA-Indianapolis, he is hitting .284 with 8 homers, 28 RBI, 21 steals, and 45 runs scored through 73 games.
In AA-Altoona, 25 year old LF Jonel Panecho is putting up outstanding numbers, hitting at a .290 clip with 8 HR and 34 RBI and 37 runs in 67 games and could be in for a promotion soon. It is not outside the realm of possibility that Panecho could end up in the Pirates’ outfield mix next spring. Also in AA, RF Brad Corley is another to keep an eye on, as he has put up respectable numbers and could play himself into a role with the Pirates in the future.
Pittsburgh would also love to unload underachieving SS Jack Wilson, but I would be surprised if a playoff contender were suddenly in search of an everyday shortstop, and if a club would ever be interested in acquiring the injury prone, streaky hitter. Should the need arise for a team to deal for Wilson, it will most likely be the result of a severe injury to a starting shortstop. In his defense, however, Wilson is an above average defender.
Adam LaRoche’s name might surface in trade rumors, but I would be surprised to see him depart before the year is through. Interest in him will be minimal in him due to the down year he is having offensively (.216 BA, .295 OBP), but the Buc’s will be tempted to let their big swinger go should the right offer come along, allowing journeyman Doug Mientkiewicz will occupy first base for the remainder of the season.
As far as pitching is concerned, teams in search of a back end of the bullpen man, especially a lefty, will be inclined to inquire about Demaso Marte and the Pirates should listen to offers. Marte has been extremely effective of late and for the season, he has posted an ERA of 3.22 and only one earned over his last ten innings pitched. The club might also look to unload one of its trio of young, experienced lefties in Gorzelanny, Zach Duke, or Paul Maholm, all of whom will be 26 or younger at the trade deadline and are in their fourth year of Major League service. Phil Dumatrait, the fourth southpaw in that rotation, could also potentially be dealt, but might not fetch enough in return, despite his effectiveness thus far,
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